As the second phase of the Gujarat assembly polls came to an end, the pollsters brought out their predictions for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections. While Gujarat polls were conducted in two phases, elections in Himachal Pradesh were held on 12 November 2022 in one phase.
By Swarajya Staff
The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is the incumbent in both states. In Himachal Pradesh, the fight is majorly between the BJP and Congress for 68 seats. AAP’s entry into the poll fray in Gujarat has made it a triangular contest, with the Congress predicted to lose its vote share in the favour of AAP.
Exit Polls on Himachal Pradesh
Most of the exit polls show the BJP sailing through the majority mark to form the government in the state, though the contest with Congress seems neck and neck.
Republic TV exit poll is giving 34-29 seats to the BJP, 28-33 to Congress, 0-1 to AAP and 0-4 to others.
Zee News exit polls too project BJP’s victory with the party getting 35-40 seats. Congress, on the other hand, is shown to win 28-33 seats. There is almost a 2 per cent difference in vote share between the two parties, with the BJP getting 44.80 per cent vote share and Congress 42.90 per cent.
However, India Today-Axis My India disagrees. According to their exit poll, Congress is set to win the state with 30-40 seats and the BJP would stand second with 24-34 seats. According to Axis, the difference would be of two per cent only. In their poll, Congress would get 44 per cent of the vote share while BJP is projected to get 42 per cent vote share.
All the exit polls show Others performing better than AAP, which is projected for zero seats or, at best, win seats in single digits.
Exit Polls on Gujarat
All the exit polls predict a historical win for the BJP in Gujarat. The party is projected to sweep the elections and win a record number of seats. The Congress vote share, on the other hand, would be split in two in favour of the AAP.
As per India Today-Axis My India, BJP is winning 129-151 seats with a vote share of 46 per cent. It is giving Congress a 26 per cent vote share and AAP 20 per cent. That is projected to translate into 16-30 seats for Congress and 9-21 seats for AAP.
The ABP-Cvoter exit poll, too, is giving 128-140 seats to the BJP, 31-43 seats to the Congress and 3-11 seats to the AAP.
The Republic TV-PMARQ Poll is giving Gujarat to the BJP with 128-148 seats, 30-42 seats to the Congress and 2-6 seats to the AAP. In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to get 48.20 per cent vote share, the Congress would get 32.60 per cent and the AAP 15.20 per cent vote share.
According to Swarajya’s poll forecast, BJP is predicted to capture 50 per cent vote share and see a sharp rise in its seat tally to 125. While INC’s 2017 tally might come down to 54 with a 36 per cent vote share. AAP is not likely to make much impact. AAP may get an 8 per cent vote share with 1-2 seats in its kitty.
With the projected win, the BJP is ready to sweep Gujarat for the seventh time and removing all doubts of anti-incumbency, even after 27 years of rule.
This article first appeared in www.swarajyamag.com and it belongs to them.
