Pakistan may celebrate the defeat of yet another superpower in Afganistan, as the Americans leave after 18 years, but it is more complicated than that. Many in the Taliban think the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is just a ploy and the mercurial Trump may back out of the deal if he wins the presidential election which will be held in November.
By Balaji Subramanian
According to a United States intelligence assessment, the Taliban do not intend to honour the promises they have made. President Donald Trump himself has acknowledged the reality of the Taliban overrun of the Afghan government once American troops withdraw, reports NBC News.
The Taliban has always viewed the Americans as occupiers and persuasive intelligence collected on the Taliban suggest they will launch a full-scale attack once the US forces leave. However, the Taliban are still at war with Afghan national security forces nor do they recognise the legitimacy of the government in Kabul.
It is increasingly becoming clear, Taliban leadership backed by Pakistan will not agree to any power-sharing arrangement with the Afghan government and the Quetta Shura, the Taliban leadership council will only be satisfied when they get Kabul.
The fundamentally flawed peace agreement which was signed on 29 March in Doha, Qatar, did not involve anyone from the democratically elected government led by President Ashraf Ghani. In just over a week after the peace deal, the Taliban has carried out over 70 attacks on Afghan government forces and Afghan political leaders are blaming the US abandoning them to the Taliban without the military and financial support.
The Taliban has demanded that 5,000 of their fighters be released which Kabul has refused and it did not help when the Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told President Ghani to show magnanimity in the larger national interest and underlined the ‘positive role’ played by Pakistan in the peace process.
However, the main aim of Pakistan is it to maintain its strategic depth and Keep India out which has played a key role in building many infrastructures in Afghanistan. Pakistan has abundantly made it clear, that it does not desire any security role of India in Afghanistan because India had always played the role of spoiler.
Pakistan may celebrate the defeat of yet another superpower in Afganistan, as the Americans leave after 18 years, but it is more complicated than that. Many in the Taliban think the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is just a ploy and the mercurial Trump may back out of the deal if he wins the presidential election which will be held in November.
Many in the republican party and officials who served under President Obama are not happy with this plan. Liz Cheney a member of the US House of Representatives said the concessions made by the US could threaten the security of the United States and lacks a “disclosed mechanism to verify Taliban compliance.”
John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the United Nations and National Security Advisor under the Trump administration called the agreement “an unacceptable risk to America’s civilian population.”
Susan Rice, a former national security adviser under President Barack Obama was equally critical of the agreement said after the US leaves we will be “abandoning Afghanistan to the Taliban wolves.” She also said after the withdrawal, America will not be able to conduct counter-terrorism operations and “effectively subcontracting America’s security to the Taliban.”
General John Allan was a former commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan said, “the Taliban are untrustworthy”. He has called this “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” will not only not be honored by the Taliban.
On 5 February, Afghanistan chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah was speaking at a gathering to mark the 25th anniversary of ethnic Hazara and Shia leader Abdul Ali Mazari’s death at the hands of the Taliban. The attack was carried out by fighters belonging to the Islamic State and more than 30 people were killed and this attack complicates the situation further.
The peace deal has shown no signs to the end of violence and killings in Afganistan and for the Afghan government, the memory of Trump Administration abandoning the Kurds in Syria is still fresh.
It is an irrevocable fact that the Taliban will inevitably violate the terms of this peace agreement and it will be the people of Afganistan, particularly women and the minorities who will bear the brunt.
